At a glance

  • Anthropic has sounded out 20-30MW compute deals in the UK and the Nordics, CNBC reported on 18 September 2026, and OpenAI has explored deals of that size in the Nordics.

  • Running AI models for users, known as inference, can be split across smaller clusters, and JLL expects its share of data centre workloads to overtake training's in 2027.

  • Certified Strategic is aware of Australian operators and developers building smaller AI sites across several locations now.

  • Australia's energy rule maker has proposed stricter grid standards for loads of 30MW or more, with a final decision due on 29 October 2026.

  • The shift fits this publication's prediction that the next ten Australian AI factory announcements will average under 150MW.

Anthropic and OpenAI are hunting for data centre deals of 20 to 30 megawatts, CNBC reported on 18 September 2026, citing people familiar with the talks. Both companies have signed for AI data centre campuses of hundreds of megawatts and gigawatts in the past year.

The talks CNBC reports are in the United Kingdom, the Nordics and the United States. In Australia, Anthropic's first data centre lease, at Western Downs in Queensland, is expected to run its Claude models for users rather than train them, the Financial Review reports, and the Australian Energy Market Commission's draft rule applies stricter grid standards from 30MW. Certified Strategic is aware of Australian operators and developers building for this now, at smaller sizes and across several locations.

Anthropic sounds out 20-30MW deals in the UK and the Nordics

CNBC's sources said Anthropic has sounded out agreements of 20-30MW across the United Kingdom and the Nordics, and that OpenAI had explored deployments of that size in the Nordics. One source also knew of talks involving both companies about United States capacity at that scale. The Nordics are also where Canada's national pension fund, CPP Investments, paid US$1.3 billion on 2 September 2026 for about 51% of atNorth, a data centre platform operating in all five Nordic countries.

The deals sit beside much larger ones. Two people told CNBC in August that Anthropic had agreed a cloud deal of about US$45 billion with Nscale, a British provider of AI computing, to rent around 460MW at a development in West Virginia. OpenAI says it passed its original 10GW commitment to its Stargate project in April and has since committed to a further 3GW in Georgia and 8GW in Ohio.

"Different workloads need different infrastructure, so we have conversations with a range of partners and assess opportunities based on our requirements, performance, reliability, timing and cost," an OpenAI spokesperson told CNBC, adding that the company does not comment on specific commercial discussions. Anthropic did not comment.

JLL expects inference to overtake training in 2027

Training a model needs many chips working closely together in one place. Inference, running the trained model to answer users, can split its requests across several smaller clusters. "Securing a few megawatts at an existing powered site can be more practical than waiting for a much larger block in one location," Jabez Tan, head of research at data centre research firm Structure Research, told CNBC. "For workloads that can operate across separate sites, a collection of smaller deployments can add up to substantial capacity."

Real estate firm JLL expects inference to overtake training in 2027, according to CNBC. JLL put inference at 9% of global data centre workloads in 2025 against 14% for training, and projects 37% against 13% by 2030. US provider Crusoe, which built the Texas campus OpenAI uses, is now investing in smaller data centres, the Wall Street Journal reported on 17 September, and announced a US$3.9 billion raise at a US$30.9 billion valuation the same day.

The AEMC draws its line at 30MW

On 12 March 2026 the Australian Energy Market Commission, which writes the national electricity rules, proposed new grid standards for data centre connections. The draft defines large inverter-based loads, which draw power through electronic converters as data centres do, as 30MW or more, up from an informal 5MW guideline, and requires them to stay connected through voltage and frequency disturbances.

The commission has extended its final determination to 29 October 2026, citing "the complexity of the issues raised in response to the draft determination". Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen has separately asked for a public register of every connection of 5MW or more. His request says the lower bar helps manage "boundary effects" around loads of 30MW or greater, so smaller sites would still be counted if the register is adopted.

Western Downs campus is expected to run Claude for users

The Financial Review reported on 16 September that Anthropic has signed what the paper calls its first Australian data centre lease, a long-term lease at Zerra DC's Western Downs Digital Park near Dalby, and that the campus is expected to run Claude for users rather than train it. No capacity figure was disclosed. The campus, filed at Kogan on 17 August, is designed for 1.44GW.

OpenAI signed a memorandum of understanding with NEXTDC for its S7 campus at Eastern Creek in December 2025, and it remained a memorandum as at 1 September 2026. Neither company has named a smaller Australian deployment.

CNBC's report and the rest-of-2026 predictions

Australian users mostly run models trained overseas, so much of the AI capacity Australia needs is for inference, and inference can be served from several smaller sites as well as from gigawatt campuses. The operators and developers building for it in Australia are designing smaller sites in several locations rather than waiting on one large block of power.

That supports the second of this publication's six predictions for the rest of 2026, that the next ten AI factory announcements will average under 150MW and sit on former industrial sites. Anthropic and OpenAI are now shopping at 20-30MW. In Sydney, GreenSquareDC named Sharon AI on 21 September as the first customer at its Norwest campus, a 15MW first stage that "revitalises an existing data centre", a former IBM and Kyndryl site according to Data Center Dynamics.

The third prediction, that Queensland sells power to an AI campus from its own generators with Anthropic as the customer, turns on who supplies the power rather than on deal size. The Western Downs lease has not settled it: the Financial Review reports Anthropic would look for long-term agreements with wind, solar and storage projects to supply the site. Both calls are scored in January 2027.

What to watch

The AEMC's final rule. The final determination on 29 October 2026 will confirm or move the 30MW threshold for the stricter standards.

Anthropic's Western Downs capacity. The lease has no disclosed size. A megawatt figure will show how much of the 1.44GW campus Anthropic has taken.

OpenAI's Eastern Creek memorandum. A conversion to a lease, or a smaller Australian deployment announced alongside it, would turn the memorandum into contracted capacity.

A smaller Australian deal for either lab. CNBC's report did not mention Australian talks. A 20-30MW agreement at one of the data centres in Australia would bring the pattern here.