How Full Are Australia's Certified Strategic Data Centres?

• NEXTDC contracted utilisation grew 137% year-on-year to 416.6MW, confirmed in its February 2026 half-year results, with a further 296.8MW forward order book underpinning FY26-FY29 revenue.

• CDC has approximately 95% of forecast lease revenues under contract, confirmed by Infratil CEO Jason Boyes in September 2025, meaning new buyers face limited options at existing Canberra and Sydney campuses.

• AirTrunk's three certified strategic campuses (SYD1, SYD2, MEL1) are part of a 1.2GW+ national platform, with MEL2 adding a further 354MW and AirTrunk stating it is capitalised to triple its planned Australian capacity.

• Grid connection, not floor space, is the primary constraint on new sovereign capacity, with AEMO forecasting data centre electricity demand reaching 12 TWh by 2030.

Australia's certified strategic data centre market has entered a phase where demand is outrunning supply in major metros, contracts are being written against capacity still under construction, and operators with secured grid allocation are now sitting on one of the scarcest assets in Australian infrastructure.

The national picture

Australia's total deployed data centre capacity sits at around 2,180MW in 2024/25, up 250% from 2020 levels, and is forecast to pass 5,000MW before 2030. Mandala Partners estimates deployable capacity will grow from 1,350MW to 3,100MW by 2030, backed by AUD $26 billion in new investment. CEFC/Baringa's more aggressive scenario projects 4.7 to 7.4GW by 2035.

Data centres currently consume around 3.9 TWh per year, roughly 2% of Australia's electricity, rising to an estimated 12 TWh, or approximately 6%, by 2030. AEMO and CEFC are now treating data centre load as a primary driver of grid augmentation decisions, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria.

NEXTDC

NEXTDC is the clearest window into how fast certified strategic capacity is being absorbed. The company's contracted utilisation grew 137% over the 12 months to December 2025, reaching 416.6MW, with a forward order book of a further 296.8MW projected to convert into billing revenue between FY26 and FY29.

The sharpest regional signal is Victoria. In March 2025, NEXTDC's Victorian contracted utilisation hit 161% of its then-built Victorian capacity of 70.5MW, meaning tenants had committed to more power than NEXTDC had commissioned at the time. That gap is being closed progressively by the M3 Melbourne facility at West Footscray and S3 Sydney at Artarmon, which carries an IT capacity of 72MW at full build-out. NEXTDC's S4 campus at Horsley Park carries a total planned capacity of 350MW following an upgrade announced in February 2026, and received development approval in late 2025.

AirTrunk

Three of AirTrunk's Australian campuses (SYD1, SYD2 and MEL1) are certified strategic sites on the HCF register, all in the 20-100MW band. AirTrunk's full Australian portfolio spans five campuses with a combined planned capacity exceeding 1.2GW: SYD1 at 121MW+, SYD2 at 158MW+, SYD3 at 330MW+, MEL1 at 276MW+ and the newly announced MEL2 at 354MW+.​

MEL2 in Melbourne's north-west, announced in December 2025, involves more than AUD $5 billion in direct investment and pushes AirTrunk's total planned Victorian investment beyond AUD $7 billion. AirTrunk has stated it is well-capitalised to triple its planned Australian capacity in the near term.

CDC Data Centres

CDC is the largest Australian-owned data centre operator, with 372MW of operational capacity and 453MW under construction as of mid-2025. Its Canberra footprint spans Hume Campus One (21MW across H1-H3), Hume Campus Two (51MW across H4-H5) and two Fyshwick facilities. Its Eastern Creek campus in Sydney delivers 123MW across four buildings (EC1-EC4), with EC5 and EC6 adding a further 108MW.

In September 2025, CDC confirmed it had secured approximately 100MW of new contracted capacity, with approximately 95% of forecast lease revenues now under contract across its network. CDC is also planning Western Australia's largest AI and advanced technology campus at Maddington in Perth, announced in late 2025. CDC is essentially sold out at existing campuses and is building ahead of demand.

Equinix and Digital Realty

Equinix invested AUD $240 million in Australian expansion in late 2025, focused on Sydney and Melbourne to support AI adoption. Digital Realty's three Erskine Park certified strategic sites (SYD10, SYD11, SYD14) each carry a 20-100MW HCF band. Neither operator publishes per-site utilisation data publicly, though Equinix's global occupancy has consistently run above 85% and its Sydney and Melbourne IBX facilities are among its most in-demand APAC assets.​

Things to watch

Sydney and Melbourne are tightening faster than other metros. A potential 1.7GW supply gap before 2030 is concentrated in these two cities. Darwin, Adelaide and Perth certified strategic sites are less constrained, and Perth is about to receive major new supply from both CDC's Maddington campus and NEXTDC's P2 expansion.

Power from the grid is the new floor space. AEMO's baseline forecast has data centres consuming 12 TWh by 2030. Several large NSW and Victorian campus projects are already queued for grid connection.

See also - Australia's Certified Strategic Data Centres Just Rewrote Three Years of Records in Six Months

Analysis written by CertifiedStrategic Editorial Team

CertifiedStrategic.com  - Australia's independent data centre index tracking capacity, certification and market news across the country's critical infrastructure providers.