How does Australia compare to Malaysia and New Zealand for AI infrastructure investment?

Malaysia leads on scale: Johor alone holds 51 approved projects worth RM182.96 billion and a 4.6GW AI-only pipeline. Australia’s competitive ground is certification clarity, with the HCF framework, federal expectations and DCA × DC Byte forecast giving a more structured procurement environment. New Zealand has emerged as a complementary sovereign play behind AWS’s US$7.5 billion Auckland region and Microsoft’s 100 per cent renewable Aotearoa cloud region.

Which ASX-listed Australian data centre stocks are leading the rally?

NEXTDC (ASX:NXT) traded around A$14.19 in May 2026, up roughly 25 per cent in two months, with broker consensus targets near A$21.16. Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) sits at A$31.30 (15 May 2026), up 11.6 per cent in the past month, with 73 per cent of its A$14.4 billion pipeline now in data centres. Macquarie Technology Group (ASX:MAQ) trades at A$76.53 on the same date, up 14.3 per cent over the past month and 20.5 per cent year on year, sitting behind the NRFC hybrid and the 47MW IC3 Super West facility due September 2026. Infratil (ASX:IFT), majority owner of CDC, surged about 12 per cent on 6 May 2026 to A$11.83 after CDC signed Australia’s largest-ever 555MW data centre contract, taking total CDC contracted capacity above 1GW; IFT is up roughly 23 per cent year to date, the NZX line hit an all-time high of NZ$15.20 on 7 May 2026, and CDC operating earnings are guided to at least A$1 billion in FY2027-28 from around A$400 million this year. Sharon AI and Firmus will join during Q3.

When will the HCF reforms be completed?

The Department of Home Affairs paused new HCF Certification registrations on 3 November 2025 pending reform completion. No public completion date has been confirmed, but the federal A$200 million NRFC investment in Macquarie Technology Group signals the reformed framework is expected during 2026, with Q3 the most likely landing window.

Six predictions for Australian data centre and AI infrastructure over the next quarter

At a glance

Sharon AI lists on the ASX in mid-June and Firmus targets a June-July IPO at US$2 billion, giving Australia two new listed neocloud reference points alongside NEXTDC and Macquarie Technology Group.
Direct-to-chip and immersion cooling become the default for new Australian builds above 50MW, anchored on NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform.
Neocloud committed pipeline (currently 1,600MW) is on track to cross 2GW before September.
The HCF reform pause (since 3 November 2025) signals the federal sovereign-certification rebuild lands in Q3 2026.
The DCA × DC Byte forecast (1.4GW today, 3.2GW by 2030) becomes the reference set for AEMO’s next ISP and the NSW inquiry’s final report due 30 September.
Australia narrows the regional gap to Malaysia on certification clarity rather than scale; New Zealand emerges as a trans-Tasman sovereign complement behind AWS’s US$7.5 billion Auckland region.

Prediction 1: A second wave of ASX listings creates a public-market neocloud asset class

Sharon AI’s mid-June ASX secondary listing, backed by Oaktree's US$350 million convertible at a 20 per cent premium, is Australia's first listed asset-light neocloud. Firmus is targeting a US$2 billion ASX IPO in June or July, anchored by its US$10 billion Blackstone and Coatue debt facility and a US$505 million equity round at a US$5.5 billion valuation. The two represent structurally different models: capital-light reseller versus capital-heavy AI factory operator.

The repricing is already visible across the four major listed Australian data centre plays:

NEXTDC (ASX:NXT): A$11.32 on 31 March, around A$14.19 in May, up roughly 25 per cent in two months. Broker consensus targets sit near A$21.16.
Goodman Group (ASX:GMG): A$31.30, up 11.6 per cent in the past month, with 73 per cent of its A$14.4 billion pipeline now data centre-focused.
Macquarie Technology Group (ASX:MAQ): A$76.53, up 14.3 per cent in the past month and 20.5 per cent year on year.
Infratil (ASX:IFT), majority owner of CDC: surged about 12 per cent on 6 May 2026 to A$11.83 after CDC's 555MW deal. The NZX line hit an all-time high of NZ$15.20 on 7 May.

By end of Q3, Australian investors will have two new listed neocloud references alongside NXT, MAQ, GMG and IFT.

Prediction 2: Direct-to-chip and immersion cooling become the default for new Australian builds above 50MW

NVIDIA’s GTC 2026 announcements established Vera Rubin, 800 VDC power and megawatt-scale liquid cooling distribution units as the reference architecture for AI-first builds. GreenSquareDC’s SYDGPU1, due Q3 2026, supports rack densities from 14kW to 200+kW. NEXTDC offers direct-to-chip, full immersion and rear-door heat exchange across multiple sites. Firmus’s Project Southgate is built around immersion from the outset.

Per-site capacity has crossed 100MW routinely (GreenSquareDC SYD1 96MW, CDC Perth 200MW, NEXTDC M3 225MW by 2027), and air-cooled retrofits cannot meet the GPU densities being procured. By the end of Q3, every new Australian disclosure above 50MW will specify liquid cooling.

Liquid cooling vendor capacity and the local skills base remain constrained. New entrants without deployment experience face a steeper learning curve than the operators leading on density.

Prediction 3: Neocloud committed pipeline crosses 2GW

Australia’s neocloud category sits above 1,600MW of committed pipeline across at least five operators. Firmus’s Project Southgate targets 1.6GW; Sharon AI is deploying 8,200 NVIDIA B300 GPUs inside NEXTDC facilities; IREN announced a 2028 Australian return with a US$3.4 billion NVIDIA contract and a 5GW DSX partnership. If those convert as flagged, neocloud committed pipeline crosses 2GW before September.

Note: 16.8GW of the DCA × DC Byte total pipeline sits in the “early stage” tier and may not all be built.

Prediction 4: The HCF reform completes and sovereign certification becomes the new operator baseline

The Department of Home Affairs paused new Hosting Certification Framework registrations on 3 November 2025, pending reform completion. Existing certified providers (NEXTDC, CDC, Macquarie Technology Group and others) continue to operate normally; the pause applies only to new registrants.

Six months in, the pause is the strongest signal the reform package is close. Macquarie Technology Group, the only operator holding the highest HCF certification for both cloud services and data centre facilities, received the A$200 million NRFC hybrid investment in March 2026, the federal government’s largest single technology investment to date. By Q3, new entrants like GreenSquareDC, Firmus and Sharon AI should have a clear certification pathway aligned with the federal expectations framework.

Prediction 5: The DCA × DC Byte forecast becomes the consensus reference for policy

The first DCA × DC Byte forecast (28 April 2026) gave Australia its first shared capacity baseline (1.4GW operational, 3.2GW by 2030) and a four-phase framework: 1.5GW operational, 3.1GW committed, 16.8GW early-stage. Belinda Dennett has anchored DCA’s narrative correction on this number set. The NSW inquiry’s final report (due 30 September) will land against these numbers; AEMO’s next ISP is the other measurement gate.

Prediction 6: Australia narrows the regional gap to Malaysia on certification, not scale; New Zealand emerges as a complementary sovereign play

Malaysia retains a structural lead on scale. The Anwar government’s AI-only moratorium (in place since 2024, reaffirmed February 2026) has consolidated approvals around AI builds, with Johor alone holding 51 approved projects worth RM182.96 billion and a 4.6GW pipeline almost entirely AI. New Zealand has become the regional sovereign complement: AWS’s “sovereign by design” Auckland region (US$7.5 billion since September 2025) is the largest publicly disclosed technology investment in NZ history; Microsoft’s 100 per cent renewable Aotearoa cloud region launched alongside.

Dimension	Australia	Malaysia	New Zealand
Operational + committed (May 2026)	1.5GW operational + 3.1GW committed	4.6GW pipeline (planned + UC)	AWS sovereign + Microsoft Aotearoa regions live
Largest single commitment	Microsoft A$25 billion (4 years)	Johor: 51 projects, RM182.96bn cumulative	AWS US$7.5 billion Auckland sovereign region
Sovereign framework	HCF (in reform), federal expectations, hyperscaler MoUs	AI-only moratorium since 2024	AWS “sovereign by design”, NZ-aligned governance
Dominant cluster	Sydney + Melbourne	Johor + Klang Valley	Auckland (~83% of national capacity)
Key constraint	Federal tax certainty (Google pause)	Power and water (30% of 2024 applications rejected)	Limited operator base

Source: Certified Strategic Editorial, primary government and operator disclosures, May 2026.

What to watch in the next 30 days

• Sharon AI ASX secondary listing, targeted mid-June.

• Firmus IPO window, June or July, the first read on listed-AI-factory pricing.

• AEMO ISP next draft release, the gate for the DCA × DC Byte numbers entering formal transmission planning.

• Next Commonwealth national-interest prioritisation statement.

• HCF reform package release, the trigger to reopen new operator registrations.